March 13, 2025
Ukraine can market expected to grow in 2025
Beverage producers and customers of canmakers in war-torn Ukraine are expected to steadily increase demand during 2025, according to analysts consulted by The Canmaker.
Despite tough conditions in the country, which has been under bombardment from Russia since 2014, with around 20% of land under occupation, analysts speaking exclusively to The Canmaker believe the can market is regaining momentum.
Oleksandr Sokolov, chief executive at Pro-Consulting, one of Ukraine’s leading research agencies in finance and canmaking, said the aluminium can market is undergoing a period of recovery to 2021 levels, and Harshita Mitra, research analyst at Euromonitor International, said the metal can market in Ukraine is poised for growth in 2025, driven by increasing demand across food, beverages and consumer goods.
Sokolov said: “As of 2024, its capacity is 85% of the 2021 level. In 2021, the market was estimated at USD76.31 million, and sales volumes were approximately 1 billion cans at an average price of an imported can of 7 cents. As a result of the crisis, the market decreased by 43% and reached a minimum of USD43.29 million.
“However, since 2023 and 2024, positive dynamics have been observed, while in 2024 the market reached USD65.21 million, which is 50% more than in 2022.”
Mitra confirmed this trend, adding that the country’s move towards EU norms and standards is pushing the move towards metal packaging and increased recycling initiatives.
Shortages of raw materials and limited production capacity, however, are daily challenges for canmakers.
Sokolov said the share of imported products in the market is approximately equal to the volume of domestic production hindering Ukrainian canmakers from fully meeting demand.
Although Sokolov expects market capacity to grow in 2025, in particular for beer and sweet carbonated drinks. According to forecasts, production for these beverages is expected to grow by 5% and 7%, respectively.
Rising import costs are another challenge for canmakers. He explained that the price of imported cans increased from 7 cents to 9c in 2024. Back in 2021, imports from Russia accounted for a third of total imports, which is now being sourced from other parts of Europe.
Sokolov said the main manufacturer-importer on the Ukrainian market is Canpack, which has about 60% of the total market capacity, followed by Ardagh Metal Packaging, with 15% market share. AMP is currently the leading importer and supplier of cans to Ukrainian manufacturers of low-alcohol beverages.
Crown Bevcam Slovakia has a market share of approximately 8%, supplying products to beverage manufacturers in Ukraine.
Ukrainian manufacturer Technocap UA specialises in the production of aluminium containers for household products and has about 6% of the market, with the support of foreign capital.
Aluminium roller Novelis also supplies products to Ukraine, via one of its customers. An official spokesperson explained: “We’re delivering material to one of our clients based in Ukraine (Kyiv) via the Karpiel terminal in Brzesko, Poland. From there it is then sent to Ukraine by our clients directly.”
Can recycling is also growing in response to the shortages of materials and environmental concerns.
Mitra commented: “In response to rising environmental concerns and consumer demand for eco-friendly solutions, Ukraine has embraced sustainable packaging innovations since 2023. With Europe implementing restrictions on single-use plastics and consumer awareness at an all-time high, many beverage brands are shifting towards environmentally sustainable packaging.”
The presence of global companies is a factor, and Ukrainian companies were also committed to increasing the use of metal packaging, he believed.
Local analysts and media reports cited beverage producer Obolon, which has transitioned to using recycled aluminium cans. In addition to reducing its carbon footprint, the use of recycled cans has also enabled Obolon, which is one of the largest beer and soft drinks’ producers in Ukraine, to significantly reduce its production costs.
Can recycling is easier in the bigger cities, such as Lviv, Kharkiv and Kyiv, where numerous collection points for aluminium cans have been established.
Mitra noted that, although, not part of the EU, Ukraine is looking to regulations, such as the 2019 Single-Use Plastics Directive, which encourages the use of sustainable alternatives such as metal cans.
This year, some analysts estimate about 15% of plastic packaging in Ukraine will be replaced by sustainable solutions that comply with the EU’s Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation (PPWR). A significant part of this volume will account for aluminium cans.
Ukrainian brands are also playing a significant role in this transformation. For instance, in 2025, Canpack collaborated with IDS Ukraine, a major producer of mineral water, which is part of IDS Borjomi International Holdings, to produce the Morshynska lemonade range in 330ml aluminium cans.
According to the company, these beverages combine Morshynska’s natural mineral water with real fruit juices and are free from preservatives, artificial colourings, and flavourings. The available flavours include apple, orange-peach, and grapefruit.
In 2024, the Lviv Brewery, which is part of the Carlsberg Group, launched a seasonal beer, Lvivske Rizdvyane, in special edition cans produced by Canpack using their Duomix print technology.
Analysts at Euromonitor International believe that with such initiatives and the broader shift towards eco-friendly packaging across Europe, the demand for metal beverage cans in Ukraine is expected to grow in 2025, despite the uncertainty of the war.